| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 26, 2026 will be. It matters for event planning, public health alerts, energy demand forecasts, and as a short-term test of weather forecasts in a coastal city with strong local variability.
Late March in San Francisco is a transitional period when the Pacific marine layer, local wind patterns, and occasional offshore highs can produce a wide range of temperatures across the city. San Francisco's complex coastal geography and strong microclimates mean that identical synoptic setups can produce very different outcomes at different observation sites. Short-term numerical weather models, sea-surface temperatures, and broader seasonal patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña) together shape expectations for a specific date.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' expectations about the most likely temperature outcome and will adjust as new model runs, observations, and forecasts become available. Treat market prices as a real-time consensus signal that complements official forecasts and climatology rather than as a definitive result.
Settlement will follow the data source and measurement definition specified on the contract page; that is typically an official meteorological observation (for example, a National Weather Service/NOAA station within San Francisco city limits). Check the event's contract details on the Kalshi page to see the exact station and reporting authority used for settlement.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; settlement generally occurs after the official daily maximum for the named station is published by the specified data source. The contract page will state the settlement timing and whether there is any official publication lag (often within a day or two after the observation).
Monitor synoptic model runs (operational guidance like GFS/ECMWF), deterministic and ensemble forecasts for the presence of offshore high pressure, the timing and strength of onshore troughs, predicted cloud/fog cover, and wind trends—these factors drive rapid changes in expected daytime highs.
Microclimates can produce substantial temperature differences across short distances; however, the contract will settle to a single official observation, so conditions at that particular station determine the outcome. If you use local observations or model downscaling, align them to the contract’s specified station and time window.
Long-term warming raises the baseline and increases the chance of higher extremes over decades, but day-to-day outcomes are dominated by short-term weather patterns. Use climatology as context, but prioritize near-term synoptic forecasts and observational updates when assessing this specific date.