| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 25, 2026; outcomes matter for short-term weather hedging and assessing how forecasts translate into realized conditions. Market prices reflect how participants assimilate forecast models, observations, and local effects into an expectation for that calendar day.
San Francisco sits in a maritime climate with strong day-to-day variability driven by the Pacific Ocean, coastal upwelling, and a persistent marine layer; late March is a transitional period when patterns can swing between cool, cloudy onshore flow and warmer, offshore conditions. Local microclimates (downtown vs. inland neighborhoods) and the particular official observing site used for settlement strongly influence which temperature is recorded as the daily maximum.
Prediction market odds represent the market’s aggregated expectation for which outcome bucket will contain the highest temperature; they update as new model guidance, observations, and synoptic developments arrive. Treat prices as real‑time summaries of information rather than fixed forecasts—check the market page for the official settlement source and rules before trading.
The market will settle to the official source specified on the event page; that is typically an NWS/NOAA reporting station or a designated COOP/ASOS site for San Francisco. Before trading, confirm the named settlement source on the market page because different stations can report different daily maxima.
'On March 25' refers to the local calendar date in San Francisco (Pacific Time) from 00:00 to 23:59 local time as used by the settlement data source. Note that U.S. daylight saving time will be in effect in late March—check the event page for the stated timezone if you need absolute UTC conversion.
The six outcomes correspond to the labeled temperature buckets shown on the event page; each label defines the inclusive/exclusive boundaries used for settlement. Review the outcome descriptions and any fine print on whether endpoints are included and how decimal values are rounded or truncated for final settlement.
The market close time is set by the exchange and is listed on the event page; currently it is TBD. Exchanges typically close trading before final settlement or after the observation day, so monitor the event page and platform notices for the posted close time and any last‑minute changes.
Look at climatological normals and past March 25 daily maxima from official archives (NOAA/NCEI, local NWS offices, and station records), but emphasize recent model runs and current observations for short‑term forecasting. Pay attention to scheduled frontal passages, model agreement, and trends in inland vs coastal temperatures, since San Francisco’s microclimates can produce materially different highs depending on wind and cloud cover.