| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest recorded in San Francisco on March 24, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes influence local services, energy demand, and provide a test of forecast skill for that date.
San Francisco in late March sits in the seasonal transition when Pacific storm tracks, the coastal marine layer, and inland heating can all produce wide daily swings. Local topography and onshore flow frequently moderate daytime highs, while large-scale patterns such as the position of Pacific highs, lows, or tropical forcing can override the usual marine influence. Historical variability means a single synoptic event can push a given March day notably warmer or cooler than typical.
Prediction market odds summarize the collective expectations of traders based on current forecasts and information; they update as models, observations, and participant views change. Use them as a real-time signal of market belief, not as a guaranteed forecast or official observational record.
The market's settlement rules specify the authoritative observation source used for settlement. That is usually a National Weather Service or other official station designated on the market page; the outcome is based on that station's published daily maximum temperature for the calendar date.
The event normally uses the local calendar date for San Francisco (00:00 to 23:59 local time) as defined in the market's rules. Confirm the exact time zone and any daylight-saving considerations on the event's rule page.
Settlement follows the fallback procedures set out in the market rules—commonly using the final quality-controlled observation from the specified agency, or substituting the nearest official station or an agency-prescribed reanalysis if data are missing. Check the market's settlement policy for precise tie-breakers and revision handling.
Traders commonly watch latest deterministic and ensemble model runs, high-resolution regional forecasts, satellite imagery of the marine layer, buoy and coastal SST reports, surface observations, and NWS forecast/prognostic discussions to assess timing of fronts or offshore heat surges that would affect the day's high.
The market's close time is listed on the event page and is currently TBD; settlement usually occurs after the official daily summary for the designated observation source is published. Refer to the event page for updates on trading deadlines and the settlement schedule.