| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest measured in San Francisco on March 23, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, local energy demand forecasting, and for participants who trade weather outcomes.
San Francisco has a cool, maritime climate where late March is a transitional month: large-scale Pacific patterns (storms, ridging) and the coastal marine layer both strongly influence day-to-day highs. Local microclimates—coastal neighborhoods versus inland pockets—produce substantial variation within the city, so a single citywide "high" depends on the reporting station and how the contract defines the measurement. Seasonal signals such as the position of the storm track or anomalous warming events can push outcomes away from typical late-March values.
Market odds reflect the collective market view about which outcome will be realized and update as new weather forecasts and observations arrive. Interpret odds as market-implied relative likelihoods plus a liquidity/market sentiment component; low trading volume or rapid news-driven moves can make prices less stable signals of true physical likelihood.
The contract page will list an official closing time; if shows TBD, check the platform frequently. Trading typically closes before the official observation period used for settlement—confirm the exact cutoff on the KALSHI contract page.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature category (as defined on the market page). After the official observation period ends, the outcome that contains the highest recorded official temperature for March 23, 2026 (at the designated reporting station and according to the contract rules) is declared the winner.
The contract's settlement rules specify the official reporting station or dataset (for example, an NWS/NOAA ASOS station or a designated cooperative station). Always check the market's rule text to see the exact data source and station used for settlement.
Definition details—such as whether the day is measured in local standard time, the unit (°F or °C), and rounding/truncation rules—are specified in the contract's settlement terms. Consult the market rules to confirm the observation window and the numerical formatting used for final settlement.
Late March is a transition month with frequent contrasts between cooler, foggy coastal conditions and warmer inland or offshore-influenced episodes; historical patterns show that small shifts in synoptic setup (onshore vs offshore flow) and the timing of frontal systems produce large differences in daily highs across the city. Traders often monitor short- to medium-range model forecasts and local marine layer forecasts to gauge which regime is likely on the target date.