| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 22, 2026 will be. It matters because temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health, and local planning, and markets aggregate forecasts from many participants.
San Francisco has strong local modifiers—marine layer, coastal upwelling, and urban microclimates—that make day-to-day temperature forecasts different from inland California. Late March sits in a seasonal transition where both cool, marine-dominated days and occasional warm, offshore-enhanced days are possible; long‑term warming trends raise background baselines but daily outcomes remain driven by synoptic weather.
Market odds reflect the aggregate belief of participants about which outcome will occur; use them to gauge relative confidence and how participants are incorporating new forecast information, but always check the market’s listed resolution source and rules for the precise definition of the recorded temperature.
Check the contract’s resolution rules on the platform; most weather contracts specify a single official observing station or data source (for example, an NWS cooperative station or airport ASOS), and that specified source is used to determine the official highest temperature.
Resolution timing depends on the platform’s stated rules: markets typically wait until the official daily summary for the designated observing station is published, which can be the same day or after a short administrative delay. Refer to the market page for the platform’s exact settlement window.
Historical values provide a baseline and indicate typical variability and extremes for late March, but they don’t guarantee the outcome because synoptic-scale patterns and short-range forecasts for that specific day are the primary drivers.
Monitor global models (ECMWF, GFS), regional convection-allowing models, ensemble forecasts, high-resolution local models, satellite and radar trends, and forecast discussions from the NWS or local meteorologists that comment on marine layer timing and offshore flow.
Shifts in the synoptic pattern (e.g., development or breakdown of offshore high pressure), sudden changes in sea surface temperature anomalies, updated model consensus or ensemble spread, timing of coastal fog/sea-breeze erosion, and any reported observation station outages or methodology changes can all alter expectations and settlement outcomes.