| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest recorded in San Francisco on March 21, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive decisions and reflects expectations about that day's local climate conditions.
San Francisco has strong seasonal and local variability driven by coastal influence and urban microclimates; March is a transitional month with past years showing a wide range of possible highs. Longer-term factors like regional climate trends and interannual patterns can shift the distribution of likely daily maxima compared with historical averages.
Market odds indicate the collective expectation of traders about which temperature outcome will occur and will move as new observations and forecasts become available. Treat the market price as a real-time signal that updates with incoming meteorological information rather than a fixed forecast.
The event's resolution criteria specify the official observing station and data source used; check the event page for the named station and the exact dataset (for example, an NWS/NOAA station) that will determine the outcome.
The event page will list the market close time; resolution typically occurs after the official daily summary from the designated observing station is published, so final posting may follow the end of the local calendar day once the official data are available.
Forecast model updates, airport or regional observations, and real-time satellite or radar reports can shift trader expectations and thus market prices throughout the day as participants reassess the likelihood of different high-temperature outcomes.
Resolution rules for the market define how boundaries and rounding are handled (for example, which side of a boundary is inclusive); consult the event's official resolution criteria for the precise tie-breaking and rounding policy.
Use official climatological archives such as the national climate data center, the local NWS climate pages, or station-specific daily summaries to retrieve historical daily maximum temperatures for March 21 at the designated San Francisco observing site.