| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 20, 2026 will be. It matters for people and organizations that respond to short-term temperature extremes (energy managers, event planners, and local media) and for testing short-range forecast skill in a coastal city.
Late March is a seasonal transition period in the Bay Area when temperatures can be strongly controlled by large-scale weather patterns and the strength of the marine layer. San Francisco’s coastal location and complex local circulations mean day-to-day highs can swing between cool, overcast conditions and relatively warm, sun-driven afternoons. Long-term warming trends affect the baseline climate but daily outcomes remain driven by immediate meteorology.
Market odds represent the collective judgment of participants combining current forecasts, observations, and local knowledge; they will change as model runs and real-time conditions evolve. Interpret them as a real-time summary of available information rather than an absolute prediction.
Resolution typically relies on an official observing station specified in the market rules (for example an NWS/AWOS/ASOS station). Consult the market’s resolution rules to confirm which station or dataset will be authoritative.
The market should resolve based on the local San Francisco calendar day (Pacific Time) for March 20; check the platform’s published resolution timestamp because some markets specify a cutoff time or wait for official daily summaries.
Most platforms defer to the official adjudicator (for example NWS/NOAA datasets) and will follow their corrected records; if an observation is revised, the platform’s dispute and correction policy determines final resolution—consult those rules.
Assessing unusualness requires comparing the day’s value to climatological norms and recent variability; because San Francisco has strong maritime influence, what looks like a warm March day elsewhere can still be moderate locally, while offshore wind events can produce relatively large departures.
Monitor short-range numerical weather models and their ensembles, local NWS forecast discussions, satellite imagery for marine layer extent, surface observations from nearby coastal and inland stations, and wind trends—these items typically drive rapid changes in expected daytime maximums.