| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° to 64° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 2, 2026. Outcomes matter to people tracking short-term weather risk, energy demand, event planning, and local transportation impacts.
San Francisco has strong day-to-day variability in early March driven by the interplay of Pacific systems and the coastal marine layer; some years stay cool and cloudy, others see brief warm offshore pushes. The market offers six mutually exclusive temperature outcomes and has attracted measurable trading volume; the official closing/resolution details are provided by the contract issuer and are currently listed as TBD.
Market prices aggregate participant information and update as forecasts and observations change; higher-priced outcomes indicate stronger market consensus but not certainty. Use prices as a real-time signal that responds to new model runs, official forecasts, and observed surface conditions.
The contract specifies the official observing source; many weather contracts use the National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) or the ASOS at a named station (for example SFO) as the authoritative data. Check the event's contract page for the designated source used for resolution.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range or exact value as listed on the event page; outcome boundaries (inclusive/exclusive endpoints) are defined in the contract rules, so consult that listing to see the precise bin edges used for resolution.
Resolution follows the dispute and fallback procedures in the contract: the designated official source is used first, and if data are missing or disputed the contract will specify backup sources or an adjudication process. Review the contract’s resolution rules for the exact hierarchy of sources.
Markets typically resolve after the official daily maximum temperature is published by the designated authority; timing can range from the same day to a few days later depending on data publication. Because the event shows 'Closes: TBD', the exact trading close and resolution window will be listed on the market contract when set.
High-resolution short-range model runs (e.g., HRRR), official NWS forecast updates, changes in observed surface winds and cloud cover near San Francisco, and new reports from the designated observing station are the primary information that prompt price shifts for this event.