| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 19, 2026 will be. It matters for local planning, energy and water demand expectations, and for tracking short-term weather variability against seasonal norms.
San Francisco in March sits in a transition between cool, marine-influenced winter conditions and spring warming; daily highs can vary substantially across neighborhoods because of the marine layer, onshore flow, and local topography. Recent climate trends have raised the frequency of warm anomalies, but day-to-day weather is still primarily controlled by the synoptic pattern and coastal processes.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations based on current forecasts and information; they are a snapshot of consensus sentiment that can change as new model runs and observations arrive, not a guarantee of the outcome.
Settlement will use the official station named in the contract on the event page; typically that is a National Weather Service or NOAA observing station designated for San Francisco. Check the event details for the exact site used for settlement.
The relevant period is the calendar day in local San Francisco time (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the specified observing station; the maximum temperature logged during that window is used.
Markets settle to the official, quality-controlled dataset and any backup sources or procedures specified in the contract; if data are provisional or corrected later, the platform's published settlement and dispute rules determine final outcomes.
Traders will watch high-resolution regional model runs (e.g., convection-permitting and mesoscale models), global models that set the synoptic pattern, satellite and coastal observations for marine layer trends, and near-real-time surface observations from local stations.
Climatology provides a baseline expectation and context for how unusual a given value would be, but short-term synoptic setup, marine influence, and local effects typically have the largest impact on the actual temperature for that specific date.