| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco will be on March 18, 2026; it matters to traders and observers who follow short-term weather variability and weather-sensitive decisions. Outcomes reflect different temperature ranges for that calendar day as determined by an official observing source.
San Francisco in mid-March typically experiences moderate, variable conditions driven by the Pacific marine layer, with coastal onshore flow often keeping daytime highs lower than inland areas. Synoptic-scale patterns—such as the presence of a ridge (warming) or trough and onshore flow (cooling)—along with sea surface temperature anomalies and storm systems, shape the day-to-day temperature picture. This market will settle to an observed value from the official data source listed on the KALSHI event page, so the exact station and measurement conventions matter for resolution.
Market odds aggregate participant expectations about the observed maximum temperature for March 18, 2026; interpret them as the market consensus but always cross-check the event's settlement rules for measurement details and bin boundaries. Prices can move as forecasts and observations change in the days immediately before the date.
Settlement is based on the highest official air temperature observed for the specified San Francisco reporting station during the local calendar day March 18, 2026; consult the event's settlement rules on KALSHI for the exact station identifier, instrument type, and any quality-control procedures used.
The event page lists the official data source used for settlement; common sources are National Weather Service/NOAA observing stations for the named city, but you must check the KALSHI market details to see which station or dataset is specified for this particular event.
The six outcomes are pre-defined temperature bins that partition the plausible range of daily maximum temperatures for March 18, 2026; each outcome corresponds to one bin—see the market description for the exact temperature boundaries and how ties or borderline values are handled.
Settlement will occur after the official maximum for March 18, 2026 has been published and verified by the listed data source; the exact timing depends on data availability and KALSHI's settlement process, which is documented on the market page.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model forecasts (e.g., major global models and regional runs), National Weather Service updates, satellite and radar imagery for cloud and frontal developments, sea surface temperature and coastal anomaly reports, and real-time station observations—especially in the 48–72 hours before March 18, 2026, when the signal for daily maximums typically sharpens.