| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which reported air temperature will be the highest in San Francisco on March 17, 2026; it matters for short-term weather planning and for participants who want to trade on a specific day’s observed temperature outcome.
San Francisco has strong seasonal and local variability driven by the cool Pacific, coastal upwelling, and frequent marine layer clouds; March is a transitional month that can produce cool, foggy conditions or brief warm offshore episodes. Markets like this settle to an official observing source and reflect a combination of meteorological forecasts and on-the-ground measurements.
Market prices represent the crowd’s view of which temperature outcome will be reported, and they typically move as official weather forecasts and observations change in the days and hours before the target date.
The market will settle to the official source specified in the Kalshi market rules for this event; that settlement source is typically an official National Weather Service/NOAA observing station or other designated meteorological authority named on the event page — check the event’s settlement clause for the exact station and dataset.
‘On’ generally refers to the local calendar date at the settlement station (Pacific Time for San Francisco), covering 00:00 through 23:59 local time unless the market’s rules specify a different observation window — confirm the exact window on the event page.
Kalshi will announce a market close time prior to March 17 and will publish the settlement timing in the event details; final resolution typically occurs after the official daily observations and any applicable quality-control or reporting delay from the designated data provider are available.
Settlement uses the definition given in the market’s settlement clause — commonly the official daily maximum air temperature as reported in the designated station’s daily summary (not composite indices like heat index) — so check the event rules to see whether it is an instantaneous reported peak or a standardized daily max.
Understand which specific station or official reporting site is used for settlement (e.g., SFO, downtown airport, or another station); neighborhoods farther from the coast or in sheltered basins often run warmer than coastal sites, so compare forecasts and observations for the designated station rather than citywide averages.