| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the maximum air temperature recorded within San Francisco on March 15, 2026 will be. It matters for traders and stakeholders with weather exposure and for understanding short-term local climate variability.
San Francisco in mid‑March is typically moderated by the Pacific Ocean, producing mild daytime highs, but temperatures can vary substantially depending on large‑scale patterns and local winds. Recent years have seen occasional warm anomalies and strong offshore wind events; local microclimates (coastal vs. inland neighborhoods) and the chosen observing station influence the realized maximum.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature outcome will be realized; they move as new forecasts, observations, and analyses arrive. Interpret prices as the market’s current tilt toward specific outcome bins, not as fixed forecasts.
The settled outcome will be based on the official maximum air temperature as defined by the event’s stated data source and time window (typically 00:00–23:59 local time); the market page lists the authoritative source and any timezone specification.
The market description should name the official station or dataset used for settlement; if it does not, platform settlement rules indicate the default authoritative sources (for example, National Weather Service/NOAA observational networks). Contact platform support or review the event page for the exact source.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature value or range shown on the market page; inspect the outcome labels on that page to see the exact bins that traders are buying and selling.
This market currently shows a close time of TBD; final settlement typically occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the named data source, which can be hours to a few days after the date—check the market page for the announced close and settlement timing.
Watch short‑range numerical weather guidance, local NWS forecasts, marine layer trends, model guidance on high‑pressure ridging or frontal timing, and local wind forecasts (onshore vs. offshore), since these factors strongly influence the daytime high in San Francisco.