| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome buckets will contain the highest observed air temperature in San Francisco on March 14, 2026. It matters for traders and observers because it aggregates near-term weather expectations for a specific place and date.
San Francisco's daily highs are strongly influenced by Pacific air masses, coastal upwelling, and local topography; spring is a transitional season when both cool marine air and occasional warm inland intrusions can occur. Historical variability on mid-March days means the same date can be cool and marine-dominated one year or unusually warm the next, depending on synoptic conditions.
Market odds reflect the aggregate beliefs of participants about which temperature range will be observed and update as new forecasts and observations arrive; they should be read as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than a certainty.
The contract's settlement rules specify the authoritative data source and station used to determine the official highest temperature; consult the event's contract details on the exchange to see which observing station and dataset will be used.
Settlement typically follows a defined local time window (e.g., 00:00–23:59 local time) and uses the maximum air temperature reported by the designated official station; check the event rules for the exact time window and measurement standard used for this market.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range listed in the market contract; review the outcome labels in the market interface to see the exact bracket boundaries in the units specified by the contract.
Yes—most contracts include procedures for missing or revised observations (e.g., using the nearest official station, a secondary dataset, or following the data provider's revision policy); those contingency rules are documented in the market's settlement terms.
Historical climatology gives context about typical mid-March highs and variability—use long-term averages and recent year-to-year variability to judge how unusual a given outcome would be, while remembering that synoptic-scale weather on the specific date dominates the actual result.