| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will represent the highest temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 13, 2026. It matters to traders tracking near-term weather variability and to users monitoring local climate and event risk for that specific date.
San Francisco has strong microclimates driven by coastal influence, topography, and variable wind patterns; March is a transitional month when both cool marine air and occasional inland warmth can occur. Short-term synoptic setups (position of highs, lows, and the jet stream) and local sea-surface conditions drive day-to-day extremes more than long-term climate trends for a single date.
Market odds represent the collective expectations of participants about which temperature outcome will be realized and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat them as a consensus signal that changes with incoming meteorological information rather than a fixed scientific measurement.
Resolution will follow the event's specified source and station listed in the market rules; that is usually an NWS/NOAA-designated station for the San Francisco area. If the event page does not name a station, consult the platform's resolution policy for the default observational dataset used.
Resolution takes place after the official daily observations for March 13, 2026 are published by the designated source. Preliminary values may appear quickly, but the platform will follow its stated timeline and use the official published value (which can be subject to short-term quality control) as described in the event rules.
The exact definition used for resolution is specified in the event's rules — commonly it is the official daily maximum temperature reported by the designated station. Check the event description for whether the market uses instantaneous highs, hourly maxima, or a daily high as recorded by the official provider.
San Francisco's microclimates create large local contrasts: proximity to cold ocean water and persistent fog cools coastal areas, while sheltered inland neighborhoods and elevated sites can warm considerably. Local terrain, urban heat islands, and wind channeling all contribute to neighborhood-scale differences that affect which station records the highest value.
Monitor the large-scale jet stream and surface pressure patterns, any coastal low or frontal systems, the state of regional sea-surface temperatures, and short-term model forecasts for offshore versus onshore wind regimes. Regional outlooks from NWS/NOAA and local forecast discussions are useful for context leading up to the date.