| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes best describes the highest temperature observed in San Francisco on March 12, 2026. It matters for traders and local stakeholders who want to hedge or speculate on near-term weather conditions that influence energy use, event planning, and comfort.
San Francisco's March climate is strongly influenced by Pacific marine air, coastal fog, and synoptic-scale systems that can produce cool onshore flow or occasional warm offshore (Santa Ana/Diablo) events. While daily highs in March are usually mild compared with inland California, notable variability can occur from year to year depending on storm tracks and pressure patterns.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders based on available weather data and forecasts; they should be interpreted as a realtime aggregation of market sentiment, not as a guaranteed forecast. For precise settlement rules and data sources, consult the contract description on the market page.
Settlement is determined by the official reported maximum temperature for the station specified in the contract. The contract description on the market page lists the exact reporting station and the authoritative data source used for settlement.
The market’s contract description names the official reporting station and data provider (for example, an NWS/NOAA station or ASOS/mesonet). Traders should check the event page for that specific station and any contingency rules.
The measurement typically covers the local calendar day as defined in the contract (from 00:00 to 23:59 local time for March 12, 2026). Confirm the exact time convention on the market page because the contract defines the applicable local timezone and day window.
The contract’s settlement rules specify backup data sources and procedures for missing or revised observations; these rules determine how the final settled value is chosen in case primary data are unavailable or adjusted.
Participants typically include retail traders, weather-focused speculators, and professionals with interests in energy, event planning, or local operations. They trade based on forecasts, model guidance, and local knowledge to manage risk or express views on the day’s temperature outcome.