| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or above | 14% | 12¢ | 17¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 13% | 11¢ | 14¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 40% | 39¢ | 40¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 33% | 33¢ | 35¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest observed in San Francisco on March 11, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-range climate variability. The result reflects an official meteorological observation for that calendar day and can be used to test forecasting skill or hedge weather exposure.
San Francisco in March sits in a transitional season where marine influence, coastal upwelling, and synoptic-scale patterns combine to produce high day-to-day variability. Local factors such as onshore flow, cloud cover, and occasional offshore wind events produce strong differences between neighborhoods and between airport and inland sites. Longer-term climate trends can shift baseline conditions, but day-to-day weather and the selected measurement site are the dominant determinants of the outcome.
Market odds represent the collective, continuously updated expectation of traders about which discrete temperature outcome will occur; interpret them as market consensus and signals about relative likelihoods rather than guaranteed forecasts. For settlement specifics and the precise measurement protocol, always consult the contract rules on the market page.
The event will be settled using the official observation method and station named in the contract text; typically that means the highest reported temperature during the local calendar day at the designated meteorological station, subject to the rounding and reporting rules spelled out on the market page.
The market's close time is listed on the event page; if it is marked TBD, you should monitor the market page for an announced close and any official updates from the exchange—notifications or the contract header will show the definitive trading close.
Settlement will rely on the authoritative source specified in the contract (for example an official NWS/NOAA station or equivalent); the exact provider and station are named in the contract rules on the market page.
Each outcome corresponds to a discrete temperature bin or category defined in the contract; view the market's outcome labels and the contract specification on the event page to see the exact temperature ranges and how they map to settlement.
Check which station the contract uses and compare typical differences between that location and other parts of the city—coastal sites tend to be cooler than inland or sun-exposed areas; factor in time-of-day heating, expected wind direction, and cloud cover when forming a view.