| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 5% | 2¢ | 5¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 96% | 93¢ | 97¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco will be on March 10, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes reflect synoptic weather patterns and can affect energy demand, transportation, and public health planning in the Bay Area.
San Francisco climate is strongly influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the coastal marine layer, which normally moderates daytime highs in late winter and early spring. However, synoptic patterns such as strong offshore flow or an amplifying ridge can produce locally elevated temperatures; year-to-year variability is also influenced by larger-scale climate patterns. The market is settled using an official observational dataset specified in the event rules.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which outcome will match the official maximum temperature observation for that date and station. To understand settlement, always consult the event's rules for the exact data source, station, time window, measurement units, and rounding conventions.
The market's settlement rules list the exact station and data source used for this event; platforms commonly rely on NOAA/NWS automatic stations or Cooperative Observer sites and datasets such as the NWS/NOAA daily summary. Check the event page for the definitive station name and source before trading.
The market will use the maximum observed air temperature recorded at the specified station during the local calendar day (00:00–24:00 local time), in the units and with the rounding rules stated in the event's settlement specifications; consult the event rules for exact definitions.
Settlement timing depends on when the named official data provider publishes the finalized daily observations and any allowed correction window in the event rules; the platform will announce settlement once it has the authoritative record specified in the contract.
Conditions favoring an unusually high maximum include a strong offshore or downslope wind pattern, an amplified mid-tropospheric ridge bringing warm dry air, weak or absent marine layer/cloud cover, and southerly or inland warm advection; timing and persistence of these features during daytime hours are key.
Yes — if the event's specified data source issues post-event corrections or final quality-controlled values, settlement will follow the final official dataset as defined in the market rules; traders should review those rules to understand any correction windows.