| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official maximum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 6, 2026. It serves as a data-driven barometer for local climate conditions on a specific spring day.
San Francisco’s coastal climate is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the California Current, leading to historically mild temperatures in early April. However, regional weather can be volatile due to shifting marine layers and occasional inland heat waves. Meteorological records for this date typically reflect a temperate transition period before the onset of the city's characteristic summer fog.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the likelihood of specific temperature ranges occurring, based on historical climate data and long-range weather forecasting models.
The market relies on the official maximum temperature recorded at the primary San Francisco observation station as reported by the National Weather Service.
San Francisco is known for extreme microclimates; the temperature at the official airport station may vary significantly from other neighborhoods depending on fog density and wind direction.
The market is settled based on the officially verified high temperature; anomalous weather events will be reflected in the final recorded data provided by official meteorological services.
Early April is a transitional season in the Bay Area, where the boundary between cold air masses and early seasonal warming can lead to high variability in daily highs.
Historical averages provide a baseline expectation, but they do not account for specific atmospheric events or year-over-year climate anomalies occurring on that specific day.