| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily maximum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 3, 2026. It serves as a data-driven barometer for regional meteorological conditions on that specific spring day.
San Francisco’s climate is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean, which typically creates a mild Mediterranean climate. However, microclimates across the city can cause significant temperature variations depending on proximity to the coastline and local topography. Historical records for early April indicate a wide range of possibilities depending on the presence of high-pressure systems or marine layers.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the most likely temperature range, reflecting both historical climate data and long-range weather modeling.
The official result is typically derived from the official National Weather Service (NWS) recording station for San Francisco, usually at San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
San Francisco is famous for having vastly different temperatures between the ocean-facing Sunset district and the more sheltered Mission district; however, the market relies on the official city-wide reporting station.
No, this market tracks the actual air temperature recorded by the thermometer, not the wind chill or heat index.
The market resolves based on the official final temperature measurement provided by the official data source, regardless of whether the weather was considered anomalous.
Early April in San Francisco is historically mild, but extreme swings can occur if a strong offshore wind event brings desert heat to the coast.