| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market allows participants to predict the maximum daily temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 21, 2026. Such metrics are vital for climate researchers and local infrastructure planning in urban environments.
San Francisco’s coastal climate is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and local topography, leading to significant microclimate variations across the city. Historical data for late April typically reflects a transition period between cool spring patterns and the onset of warmer, drier conditions. This market captures the volatility inherent in predicting specific localized weather events far in advance.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather models and historical climatological trends, functioning as a decentralized forecast for regional atmospheric conditions.
The official high temperature is typically sourced from the National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station located at the San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
No, the market relies on the official airport observation point, which may differ significantly from temperatures in other parts of the city due to San Francisco's complex microclimates.
Meteorological skill is generally low for specific daily high temperatures beyond a 7-10 day window, making this a long-term probabilistic assessment.
The outcome is settled based solely on the recorded high temperature data reported by the designated primary meteorological authority, regardless of the cause of the weather.
Yes, the provided outcomes are structured based on historical temperature distributions for late April to capture both typical and extreme climate scenarios.