| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 2, 2026. It provides a localized instrument for forecasting spring weather patterns in the San Francisco Bay Area.
San Francisco’s weather is heavily influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the city's complex microclimates. April typically marks a transition period where early spring temperatures are moderated by coastal fog and marine layers, making daily temperature extremes difficult to predict with precision.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather models and historical climate data, with higher prices indicating a greater consensus that a specific temperature range will be reached.
The official data is derived from the National Weather Service (NWS) San Francisco/Monterey office observations, typically recorded at the official downtown site or San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
The market relies on the official reported daily maximum temperature; any extreme event recorded by the official reporting station will be used for final settlement.
Yes, but this market is settled based on the standardized official reporting site, not neighborhood-level temperature readings.
The marine layer often acts as a thermal buffer, preventing inland temperatures from rising significantly; a thinner layer typically allows for higher daily maximums.
Recent years have shown increased variability in spring temperatures, often linked to shifting ocean currents and altered atmospheric river patterns.