| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in San Francisco on April 19, 2026. It serves as a data-driven gauge for mid-spring meteorological trends in a region known for its highly localized microclimates.
San Francisco weather in April is heavily influenced by the marine layer and the Pacific Ocean's cooling effect. While early spring typically sees mild temperatures, variations in atmospheric pressure and coastal fog patterns can cause significant deviations from historical averages. Because weather stations in the city, such as those at SFO or downtown, often report differing data, the specific reporting source defined in the contract rules is critical for settlement.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of weather outcomes, reflecting historical climate data and available long-range atmospheric forecasts.
The market settles based on the official temperature data provided by the specific government weather station designated in the contract terms.
The marine layer often acts as a natural air conditioner; if it persists throughout the day, maximum temperatures remain significantly lower than if the skies clear to full sun.
Significant temperature swings in April are often driven by 'offshore flow' events where winds blow from the warmer interior, potentially spiking temperatures above the coastal norm.
The market is settled based on the recorded daily high reported by the official source, regardless of whether that temperature was caused by normal variability or an extreme weather event.
No, this market tracks the highest temperature recorded at any point during the 24-hour calendar day, regardless of when that peak occurs.