| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $794 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $599 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six mutually exclusive temperature-range outcomes will match the highest temperature recorded in San Antonio on March 9, 2026. It matters because it aggregates real-time market views about a single-day weather extreme that can affect energy demand, outdoor work, and local weather risk assessment.
Early March in San Antonio is a transitional period when the region can experience rapid swings between cool, frontal conditions and springlike warm spells, so a single day's maximum can be influenced by short‑term synoptic changes. Seasonal climate influences (for example basinwide patterns) and long‑term warming trends change the baseline probabilities of anomalously warm or cool days. Local influences such as proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and urban heat island effects also shape daily maximum temperatures.
Market prices on this event reflect the aggregated expectation of which temperature range will be the measured daily maximum and will update as new forecast model runs and observations arrive. Use prices as a dynamic signal of crowd expectations, not as definitive forecasts; they change with new information and settle based on the official observed value.
The market offers six predefined, mutually exclusive outcomes that correspond to temperature ranges for the highest air temperature observed in San Antonio on March 9, 2026; the specific range boundaries are listed on the event page and only the range containing the official observed maximum will settle.
The event listing shows the close time as TBD; the platform will announce the market close and the settlement procedure. Final settlement occurs after the official daily maximum temperature for March 9, 2026 is released by the designated official data source identified on the event page.
Settlement uses the highest air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the official observing station or data source specified by the market (as noted on the event page), following the platform's published settlement rules.
Consider that early March can show high interannual variability due to frontal timing and large‑scale climate patterns; multi‑decadal warming trends shift the typical baseline but day‑to‑day outcomes are driven mainly by short‑term weather systems.
Key information includes major numerical weather model runs (e.g., operational global and regional models), National Weather Service forecasts and updates for the San Antonio area, short‑term observations and surface analyses showing frontal passages, and local meteorological reports or warnings.