| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $559 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $550 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature outcome will contain the highest air temperature observed in San Antonio on March 8, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested participants because it aggregates market expectations about a specific, short-term weather outcome.
This is a single-day weather contract covering the maximum daily temperature at the official observing site for San Antonio on that calendar date. San Antonio in early March sits in a transition season with frequent swings between cool air intrusions and warm Gulf-influenced periods; the market has six discrete outcomes and currently shows active participation (total volume traded: $2,822) with the close time listed as TBD.
Market prices represent the collective view of participants about which temperature range will occur; they update as forecasts, observations, and model guidance change and should be used alongside official meteorological forecasts rather than as a definitive forecast on their own.
The contract will settle to the outcome whose temperature range contains the official daily maximum as reported by the designated observing source; settlement follows the market's published rules and uses the official reported max for the local calendar date.
The market uses the official observing station specified in the contract terms—typically the National Weather Service-designated climate or airport station for San Antonio; check the market's rules or description to confirm the exact source.
Yes — 'on Mar 8, 2026' refers to the local calendar date at the designated observing site. If a daylight saving time change occurs that day, official observers and the reporting agency account for the clock shift; settlement relies on the official daily max as published for that local date.
Watch forecast model runs and updates for frontal timing, strength of southerly vs. northerly flow, cloud/precipitation prospects, and any shifts in upper-level patterns that would alter temperature advection into the region.
Finalization occurs after the official maximum temperature is published by the designated reporting authority; the specific timeline for posting and formal settlement is defined in the market's settlement rules and is typically within hours to a few days after the observation is available.