| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86° to 87° | 36% | 31¢ | 32¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 49% | 48¢ | 49¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 14% | 21¢ | 22¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 3% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will represent the highest temperature observed in San Antonio on March 6, 2026; it matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, public health planning, and local operations.
San Antonio sits in a transition zone where early March can be influenced either by cool continental fronts or warm, moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico, so single-day highs can vary substantially from year to year. Forecasts for a specific date depend heavily on the timing and strength of synoptic features in the days leading up to the event.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations for the discrete temperature outcomes listed in this market; use price movements alongside official forecasts and observational updates to gauge changing expectations as March 6 approaches.
The market's settlement rules list the official data source; commonly this is an identified National Weather Service station or an ASOS/COOP site associated with San Antonio (for example, an airport or NWS-run observing site). Check the event description to confirm the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
Settlement definitions vary by market but are typically the single highest reported observation at the specified official station during the local calendar day (0000–2359 local time), or a designated hourly maximum. Refer to the event rules to see whether they use instantaneous, hourly, or post-processed daily max values and any tie-breaking procedures.
This event currently lists a close time as TBD; the market page will be updated with a firm close and settlement timeline. Settlement typically occurs after the official daily observations are published and any required quality-control processes are completed.
Watch short-range model guidance and ensemble trends for frontal timing, surface wind shifts (southerly vs northerly), cloud and precipitation forecasts, mesoscale updates from the National Weather Service, and real-time station observations in the 24–72 hours before March 6.
Early March is a transitional period with strong day-to-day variability driven by frontal passages and Gulf flow; that means outcome probabilities for a single date are especially sensitive to short-range forecast updates rather than seasonal averages, so track evolving forecasts closely.