| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° to 89° | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 47% | 43¢ | 47¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 1% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 83° or below | 7% | 6¢ | 10¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 92° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 41% | 37¢ | 41¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in San Antonio on March 5, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on short‑term weather and for anyone tracking notable weather events for that date.
San Antonio's early March weather can swing between cool and mild depending on synoptic-scale patterns and frontal timing. Short‑term forecasts and historical variability both matter because a single cold front, strong sunshine day, or lingering clouds can materially change the day’s maximum. The market resolves against an official observing station’s recorded daily maximum temperature for March 5, 2026.
Market prices reflect participants’ collective assessment of which temperature range will be observed; interpret them as a real‑time signal of market expectations, not as a guaranteed outcome. Settlement depends on the official, post‑event record referenced in the contract.
Settlement will use the official National Weather Service/NOAA daily maximum temperature for San Antonio on March 5, 2026, as recorded at the designated official observing station referenced in the contract.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range defined in the contract; the outcome that includes the official maximum temperature recorded for March 5, 2026, will be the winning outcome per the market’s resolution rules.
The market close time is listed as TBD; settlement occurs after the official daily maximum for March 5 is published by the referenced authority and any applicable correction window has passed, following the market operator’s published settlement schedule.
Key developments include the exact timing of frontal passage, unexpected cloud cover or clear skies during peak heating hours, changes in wind direction bringing Gulf air or continental air, and the presence of upper‑level ridging or troughing that amplifies or suppresses heating.
Yes — the market settles according to the final official record specified in the contract; if the official record is later revised by NWS/NOAA within the contract’s allowable correction period, settlement will follow that revised official value.