| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete outcomes best describes the highest air temperature recorded in San Antonio on March 4, 2026. It matters because single-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, public safety, and short-term local planning, and the market aggregates diverse information into a single signal.
San Antonio sits in a transitional climate zone where late-winter into early-spring temperatures can swing between cool spells and unseasonable warmth. Day-to-day outcomes on a specific date reflect the timing of synoptic features (cold fronts, ridges), Gulf moisture, and local mesoscale effects rather than long-term climate averages. Historical records provide context, but the realized maximum on a single day is highly dependent on the exact timing of these weather drivers.
Market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of which temperature bin is most likely, incorporating forecasts, observations, and risk preferences; they update as new meteorological information arrives. Use them to compare scenarios and the market’s evolving expectation, but always verify against official forecasts and station data for operational decisions.
The contract currently lists the close time as TBD; KALSHI will publish a specific close time in the contract details. The winning outcome is determined after the designated official observation for March 4, 2026 is finalized by the named source and any official corrections are applied according to the market’s settlement rules.
Settlement will use the market’s designated official source specified in the contract—check the KALSHI event page for the exact station (for example, an NWS/NOAA ASOS station or local NWS office dataset) and the observation interval used to define 'highest temperature.'
The six outcomes partition the plausible range of highest temperatures on March 4, 2026 into mutually exclusive bins; each ticket represents one bin. The contract description lists the exact temperature boundaries for each outcome.
Most markets settle to the official final observation published by the designated agency; if that agency issues an official correction or erratum, the market typically follows that corrected value subject to the market’s dispute and settlement rules—consult the contract for the specific policy.
Monitor the designated local forecast office and official station observations, short- and medium-range model runs (e.g., operational deterministic and high-resolution ensembles), radar and satellite for cloud cover trends, and updates on frontal timing; focus on factors that change daytime heating such as cloud timing, frontal passage, and wind shifts.