| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 84° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will record the highest air temperature in San Antonio on March 3, 2026. It matters because daily-maximum temperature outcomes reflect short-term weather dynamics and are useful for hedging temperature-sensitive operations and expressing weather views.
San Antonio in early March is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing widely depending on the timing of cold fronts, warm-air advection, and cloud cover. Single-day maxima are driven by synoptic-scale patterns (ridging vs. troughing), local sea-level circulation, and day-to-day cloud and precipitation trends. Market resolution will rely on the observing station and methodology specified by the hosting platform.
Market odds summarize the collective expectations about which temperature range will be the daily maximum; they aggregate public forecasts, recent observations, and trader risk preferences. Use odds as a real-time gauge of perceived likelihoods, while remembering they reflect both information and market sentiment.
The market uses the calendar day as defined in its rulebook—typically the local (San Antonio) 00:00–24:00 clock for March 3; check the Kalshi market page for the precise timezone and any special window definitions.
Resolution will follow the data source specified in the market's resolution rules—usually an official National Weather Service or designated local observing station; consult the market rules to see the exact station and dataset used.
The market close time is set on the platform (listed as TBD here); the outcome is posted after the official daily maximum for March 3 is available and Kalshi applies its resolution procedure—check the market page for the posted close and settlement schedule.
Historical values provide context on typical variability and how extreme a given outcome would be, but a single-day result is more strongly controlled by current synoptic conditions, so combine climatology with recent forecasts and model trends for trading decisions.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model runs for frontal timing, upper-level trough/ridge evolution, surface temperature advection, cloud/precipitation probability, and the NWS/local forecast updates—small timing shifts in these elements can materially change the daily maximum.