| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in San Antonio on March 29, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive operations, planning, and assessing short-term climate variability.
Late March is a transitional period in South Texas when temperature swings can be large due to competing influences: warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico versus cooler continental air from frontal passages. Large-scale patterns such as the position of the jet stream, presence of high-amplitude ridges or troughs, and tropical moisture availability all shape day-to-day outcomes.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of which temperature outcome will be observed at the designated reporting station on the event date; check the event page for the authoritative observation source and tie/rounding rules.
The outcome is based on the highest official air temperature recorded during the local calendar date March 29, 2026 at the reporting station specified in the market rules; check the event page for the designated station and any listed cutoffs.
This market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes representing different temperature ranges; the precise numeric ranges for each outcome are listed on the event page and determine which outcome resolves based on the observed maximum.
Settlement will use the official reporting source named in the event rules (typically the National Weather Service/airport station or another specified meteorological station); verify the event page to confirm the exact station and data product used for resolution.
‘Highest temperature’ means the maximum air temperature measured by the designated official thermometer/instrument according to the station’s standard protocols; the event rules describe any rounding, tie-breaking, or data-quality adjustments that apply.
Watch forecasts for frontal passages, overnight lows (which affect recovery and daytime peak), model consensus on cloud cover and precipitation, and any rapid pattern changes in the jet stream or Gulf moisture return—these factors materially change expected daytime maxima.