| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed temperature in San Antonio will be on March 28, 2026; it matters to traders interested in weather-driven risk and to anyone following seasonal temperature variability for planning. The outcome aggregates expectations about that day's maximum temperature as measured by the event's designated observing station.
Late March in San Antonio sits in a transition season where warm Gulf air can clash with spring cold fronts, producing wide day-to-day swings in maximum temperature. Long-term climate trends and multi‑seasonal patterns (for example, phases of El Niño/La Niña) set a background, while short‑term synoptic weather systems determine the actual reading on a given day. Local factors such as cloud cover, precipitation, and urban observational site characteristics also influence the reported maximum.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which of the event's discrete outcomes (temperature bins or values) will be the highest observed temperature on that date; prices update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat the market as a continuously updated summary of expectations, not as an official meteorological observation, which will be used only for final resolution.
The market will be resolved according to the resolution rules specified on the event page, which typically reference an official observing station (for example, the NWS/ASOS climate site serving San Antonio). Consult the event's resolution details to see the exact station and data source that will be used.
A closing time will be posted on the market page; until a close is announced the market remains open and prices can change as forecasts evolve. Once the market closes, no further trading affects outcome determination, but the official observation on March 28, 2026 will still determine settlement per the posted rules.
The market is structured into six mutually exclusive outcomes corresponding to predefined temperature categories or values as shown on the market page; check the event listing to view the exact bins or labels that define those six options.
Resolution follows the platform's published dispute and resolution policy: typically the designated official source (e.g., NWS/ASOS) is used, and if that record is missing or later quality‑controlled, the platform will apply its backup procedures (such as using the nearest official station or waiting for the final corrected observation) as described in the event rules.
Watch local NWS forecasts and public model outputs (short‑range models like HRRR, operational models such as GFS and ECMWF, and their ensembles), surface observations and METAR reports, satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation trends, and any mesoscale updates about frontal timing—these inputs drive day‑to‑day max temperature outcomes.