| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will represent the highest observed air temperature in San Antonio on March 27, 2026. It matters because single-day temperature extremes are useful signals of short-term weather dynamics and contribute to understanding seasonal and climate variability.
San Antonio in late March is in a spring transition period, when both warm, subtropical air masses and cool fronts from the north can influence daily highs. Year-to-year variability is common, and longer-term climate change has shifted the underlying distribution of temperatures toward warmer extremes, increasing the chance of early-season heat events while still allowing late cold spells.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about what the official recorded maximum temperature will be on that date; they are not guarantees but indicators that update as weather forecasts and observations change. Always consult the market's settlement rules to map a realized observation to a specific outcome.
Settlement will use the official temperature observation source defined in the market's settlement rules—typically an official National Weather Service or designated local meteorological station record for San Antonio. Check the market description for the specific station or data provider named for settlement.
Daily maxima are usually based on the calendar date at the station's local time (midnight through 23:59 local time), but the market's settlement rules specify the exact time window and whether local standard or daylight time applies—refer to those rules for the definitive answer.
Each outcome corresponds to a pre-defined temperature interval or threshold listed on the market page; after the official observation is published, the outcome whose interval contains the recorded maximum is declared the winner. If the observed value falls exactly on a boundary, the market's posted tie-break or boundary rule explains how settlement is handled.
Most markets include fallback procedures in their settlement rules—common approaches use an alternate official station, regional reanalysis products, or authoritative NWS corrections. The market's settlement policy will specify which alternative data source is used in cases of missing or compromised observations.
Historical late-March climatology provides context on typical variability and the range of plausible highs, and recent trends indicate a modest shift toward warmer extremes; however, single-day outcomes are driven by the immediate synoptic setup, so combine climatology with short- and medium-range forecast information for the best-informed view.