| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Antonio will be on March 26, 2026; it matters because temperature extremes affect public safety, energy demand, and local economic activity. Traders use available forecasts and historical patterns to express expectations about that single-day peak.
San Antonio's late-March temperatures are influenced by the clash of seasonal warming and episodic cold fronts; variability from year to year can be large because of transient weather systems. Seasonal climate patterns and short-term synoptic setups both play roles, and organizers resolve the market using an official observing source defined in the market rules.
Market odds summarize the crowd’s current expectation for which pre-defined temperature bucket will contain that day's maximum; they update as new weather model output and observations arrive but do not guarantee an outcome.
Resolution follows the reporting procedure laid out on the event page: the highest validated observation from the designated official observing station and data source specified in the market rules will be used.
The market close time will be posted on the platform; trading stops at that listed deadline and the outcome is finalized after the official observations for March 26 are available and any verification or adjudication window in the rules has passed.
The six outcomes are discrete temperature bins that partition possible maximum values for that day; their exact numeric boundaries are listed on the market’s event page and order entry interface.
Look at long-term March climatology for San Antonio, recent daily maxima around this date in recent years, operational weather model forecasts for the synoptic pattern, and official station metadata to understand typical variability and measurement practices.
The market resolution will follow the dispute and adjudication procedures specified in the rules: organizers will rely on validated final observations, use backup or nearest official stations if pre-specified, and apply any correction policies detailed in the event terms.