| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome bins will contain the highest air temperature recorded in San Antonio on March 20, 2026. It matters because single-day temperature extremes reflect short-term weather patterns and can affect energy demand, public health, and local operations.
San Antonio in mid-March is in a transitional season where late winter cold fronts can still arrive but spring warmth becomes increasingly common; synoptic-scale patterns (ridges, troughs, fronts) determine whether a given day is unusually cool or warm. Historical variability is substantial around this date, so forecasts depend heavily on the immediate weather pattern in the days leading up to March 20.
Market prices represent collective judgment about which outcome bin is most likely to be realized given available information and the contract’s resolution rules. Use them as a real-time synthesis of forecasts and market sentiment rather than precise forecasts of the meteorological state.
The market uses the local calendar date for San Antonio (the March 20, 2026 local date). Check the contract’s resolution details for the exact time window and how daylight saving adjustments are handled, but expect the event to refer to the highest official observation within that local date.
Resolution relies on the specific official meteorological station or published dataset named in the contract (typically an NWS/NOAA station or other designated official source). Consult the market’s resolution source field to see the exact station and dataset that will be used.
Outcome resolution follows the contract’s process: the designated data provider’s official daily maximum is used and the market is settled once that value is published and any specified quality control or verification window has passed. The contract page lists expected timing for settlement or conditions that could delay finalization.
Most contracts specify fallback procedures — for example, using an alternate official nearby station or an archived validated dataset if primary data are unavailable or subsequently revised. Check the contract’s dispute and fallback rules for the exact procedure.
The market creator chose a discrete outcome structure (six bins) to partition possible maximum temperatures into manageable categories for trading and settlement; the contract page shows the exact ranges and how each will be treated at settlement.