| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will record the highest air temperature in San Antonio on March 2, 2026; it matters for people and firms hedging weather risk and for anyone tracking short-term climate variability in the region.
San Antonio sits in a transitional climate zone where early March can produce a wide range of outcomes, from cool, post-frontal conditions to surprisingly warm, sunny days. Short-term weather drivers — frontal passages, upper-level patterns, cloud cover and precipitation — often matter more than long-term climate trends for a single-day high. This market offers six discrete outcomes so traders can express views about where that single-day maximum will fall.
Market prices reflect the aggregated views of traders about how likely each outcome is, and they update as new weather model runs and observations arrive; interpret them as a real-time signal of collective information rather than a guarantee of the final temperature.
Settlement will use the official temperature reading specified in the market rules — typically the National Weather Service or a designated cooperative station for San Antonio; consult the event’s settlement specification to confirm the exact station and observation product used.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page; the settlement period for the March 2 daily maximum is generally the local meteorological day spanning that date (midnight to 11:59:59 local time) but you should check the market’s rules for the precise timezone and cut-off.
The platform’s settlement and dispute procedures apply: they typically rely on the official reported value and have specified tie-breaking or fallback sources (e.g., nearby stations or archived official products) — review the event’s settlement clause for the exact procedures.
A late-arriving frontal system, unexpected persistent cloud cover or rain during peak heating hours, or stronger-than-forecast southerly warm advection would each be capable of shifting the day’s maximum well away from the climatological norm.
Reported volume gives a sense of liquidity and how many participants have expressed views; higher volume often means more information is reflected in prices, but volume alone does not guarantee accuracy — use it together with up-to-date forecasts and the market’s settlement rules.