| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in San Antonio on March 18, 2026 will be and why that peak matters for energy demand, outdoor activities, and short‑term weather risk. It provides a way to aggregate expectations about a single daily weather outcome.
San Antonio’s mid‑March weather can swing between cool, frontal conditions and early spring warm spells; year‑to‑year values for March 18 have historically varied widely. Local mesoscale influences, Gulf moisture, and the timing of synoptic systems frequently determine whether a given March day is unseasonably warm or cool. Market participants should consider both climatology for the date and the near‑term meteorological setup.
Market prices reflect the collective market view about which temperature outcome is most consistent with available forecasts and observations; treat them as a dynamic signal rather than a guarantee. For final outcome and settlement rules, consult the contract page and the exchange’s stated authoritative data source.
The event will settle to the official maximum temperature value provided by the contract’s designated reporting authority and station; check the market’s contract rules for the named source and any rounding or tie‑breaking procedures.
The market contract specifies the authoritative station or data provider (for example an NWS or airport observing site); if you don’t see it on the market page, refer to the exchange’s settlement documentation for the named source prior to trading.
Settlement timing is set by the exchange and will follow publication of the official daily observation; official daily summaries are commonly available within a day or two after the observation, and the market will announce its settlement schedule.
Consult national climate archives and local NWS climate pages, station ASOS/COOP archives, and regional climate summaries for historical daily maxima and long‑term normals for March 18.
Late shifts in frontal timing, unexpected cloud cover or convective precipitation, abrupt wind‑direction changes bringing different air masses, or instrumentation/reporting issues at the official station can all change the observed maximum on short notice.