| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest air temperature observed in San Antonio on March 17, 2026. It matters for traders and observers tracking near-term weather risk, energy demand, event planning, and local impacts tied to temperature extremes.
San Antonio in mid-March is in a transitional season where temperatures can swing from cool to warm depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Short-term outcomes are driven by the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and precipitation, while long-term trends like warming increase variability and the chance of record warmth. The market presents six discrete outcome ranges that partition possible maximum temperatures for that calendar day.
Market odds aggregate participants' expectations about which temperature range will be realized; they update as new forecast information and observations become available. Use the market as a real-time indicator of consensus temperature expectations, while remembering that official settlement follows the data source and rules specified in the contract.
Settlement relies on the contract definition; typically it is the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the designated official observing station. Check the market rules for the exact station, time zone, and measurement conventions used for this event.
The market contract names the official data source and observing station to be used for settlement. For U.S. city temperature contracts this is commonly an NWS/NOAA station identified in the contract; traders should consult the event page to confirm the specified source.
The event page indicates the market close time as TBD; KALSHI will publish a trading close before the event. Final settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is posted and any verification window or dispute process in the contract has elapsed—monitor the market page for exact timing.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range for the highest observed temperature on March 17, 2026. The event page or contract lists the exact numeric breakpoints for those ranges; outcome determination is based on which interval contains the official maximum.
Combine seasonal climatology for mid-March with the latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance (short-range models and regional forecasts), local NWS forecasts and updates on frontal timing, and recent trends such as anomalous soil moisture or synoptic patterns. Because conditions can change rapidly, revise assessments as new observations and model runs are released.