| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest recorded air temperature in San Antonio on March 16, 2026; it matters because daily extreme temperatures reflect short‑term weather patterns and can affect energy demand, public health, and local operations.
San Antonio has strong seasonal variability in March as winter patterns give way to spring; year‑to‑year swings are driven by frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and broader climate patterns. Historical March conditions provide a baseline but specific daily outcomes hinge on synoptic weather systems active on or near the date.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations based on forecasts, observations, and news; they should be read as a dynamic consensus about which temperature range participants expect will contain the official daily maximum, not as a fixed climatological statement.
Each outcome corresponds to one of six mutually exclusive temperature bins or thresholds covering possible values of the highest observed air temperature in San Antonio on March 16, 2026; the market listing on the platform shows the precise ranges for each outcome and the winning outcome will be the bin that contains the official reported maximum.
Resolution occurs after the official highest temperature for the local date March 16, 2026 is published for the designated official observing station; the platform will follow its posted settlement rules and cite the specific data source (typically the official NOAA/NWS station record) used to determine the winning outcome.
Traders typically monitor NWS forecast discussions and warnings from the San Antonio office, surface observations (METAR) at the official station, model guidance and ensemble spreads from major forecast models, and local radar/satellite trends in the 48–72 hours prior to March 16 to refine expectations for the daily maximum.
Historical March 16 climatology and recent multi‑year trends provide a useful baseline for what's typical, but traders should combine that context with current synoptic forecasts and near‑term observations because daily extremes are strongly influenced by transient weather systems.
Potential causes include timing of a frontal passage relative to the warmest part of the day, sudden storms or cloud cover, instrument exposure or calibration issues at the reporting station, and rare post‑event data corrections; the market relies on the official observing station record and the platform's settlement rules.