| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Antonio on March 15, 2026 will be. Outcomes matter for weather-sensitive planning, agricultural and energy decisions, and for following local climate variability.
San Antonio has a subtropical climate with large early-spring variability: temperatures in mid-March can swing widely depending on cold-front passages or warm Gulf flow. Year-to-year variability is influenced by synoptic weather patterns, while long-term climate change has shifted baseline temperatures and the frequency of extreme heat events.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about the most likely temperature outcome given current forecasts and observations. Prices will move as short- and medium-range weather forecasts, observations, and model guidance are updated.
The resolved value will be the maximum official air temperature reading recorded for the calendar date by the market's designated reporting source. Consult the event's resolution rules on the market page to see which station and dataset are used.
The market's resolution rules specify the official reporting station and data source; check the event page for that designation. Kalshi commonly references official meteorological observations (for example, NWS/NOAA stations) but the exact source is listed in the event details.
Resolution is generally based on the 24-hour calendar date as observed by the designated reporting station (00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time used by that station). Because March 15, 2026 falls after the start of daylight saving time, the local clock will be Central Daylight Time for observers in San Antonio; confirm the precise time convention in the market rules.
Tie-breaking, missing-data procedures, and alternative data sources are governed by the market's resolution policy. If the primary station cannot provide a valid record, the event page and resolution rules will describe fallback procedures—review those before trading.
Watch short-range NWS/local forecasts and forecast discussions, high-resolution model runs (for frontal timing and cloud/precip trends), surface observations from the designated reporting station, radar and satellite trends for cloud cover/precipitation, and upper-air analyses that indicate ridging or troughing patterns.