| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will contain the highest air temperature observed in San Antonio on March 13, 2026; it matters for traders interested in short-term weather-driven risks and for those tracking seasonal temperature anomalies.
Mid-March in San Antonio is a transitional period when strong variability is common—warm Gulf air masses can produce unseasonable highs while late winter fronts can lead to much cooler readings. Historical variability and synoptic-scale drivers (frontal timing, Gulf moisture, and large-scale teleconnections) make a single-day maximum temperature both predictable in broad terms and sensitive to timing details.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature bin will contain the day’s official maximum as recorded by the designated observing site; interpret odds as the crowd’s assessment of relative likelihoods rather than fixed forecasts.
Resolution will use the official daily maximum temperature recorded at the market’s designated San Antonio observing station per the market’s stated data source (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station or another specified official site); consult the market rules for the exact source.
The market will resolve after the official daily summary for March 13, 2026 is published by the designated data provider; the precise resolution timing depends on the market’s rulebook and the data publication schedule, so check the event page for updates.
Each of the six outcomes maps to a specific temperature range or threshold defined by the market; the event page lists the exact cutoffs for each outcome and how ties or missing data will be handled.
Mid‑March climatology shows large day‑to‑day swings in South Texas driven by frontal passages and variable Gulf influence; traders should consider recent trends, prior-week temperature persistence, and the frequency of early‑spring warm spells versus late cold snaps in planning positions.
Potential issues include sensor outages or station maintenance, use of a backup or nearby observing site, and any post‑event quality control adjustments by the data provider; the market’s resolution policy will describe procedures for alternate data or contested readings.