| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 12% | 4¢ | 11¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Antonio will be on March 11, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability. Market prices reflect collective expectations about that single-day weather outcome.
San Antonio's early March weather can swing between cool and warm depending on the timing of frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and large-scale patterns like El Niño/La Niña. Long-term warming trends change the baseline climatology, while advances in numerical weather prediction improve skill in the days leading up to the date.
Odds in this market summarize the crowd's view of which temperature outcome is most likely given current information; they will evolve as forecasts, observations, and model guidance update nearer to March 11, 2026.
The contract will resolve using the official observational source specified in its terms—typically an authorized local meteorological station’s daily maximum as reported by the responsible agency. Check the market’s resolution clause for the named data provider and station.
The resolution window is defined in the contract terms; markets like this commonly use the local calendar day (00:00–24:00 local time) for the specified station, but confirm the exact time window in the market’s resolution rules.
Outcomes are the labeled temperature categories or exact values listed in the market; each outcome represents the highest reported temperature falling within that interval or matching that value according to the contract’s data source and resolution rules.
Forecast model runs, ensemble spread, and recent observations (satellite, surface, radar) will change expectations most strongly within about 7 days of the target date; as deterministic forecasts converge and ensembles tighten, market prices typically adjust to reflect the improved predictability.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and typical variability for early March, but treat it as context rather than a predictor: year-to-year weather patterns and synoptic setups often produce departures from long-term averages, so combine climatology with current forecast guidance.