| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 95% | 94¢ | 99¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest air temperature recorded in San Antonio on March 10, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather risk and for stakeholders tracking heat impacts in the region.
San Antonio sits in a climate zone that can swing rapidly in early spring, so a single March date can see anything from cool, frontal conditions to unseasonably warm days. Seasonal drivers (such as large-scale ocean-atmosphere patterns) and local factors (frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and urban effects) combine to produce significant day-to-day variability.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of which temperature range is most likely to contain the day’s maximum at the official observing site; treat prices as real-time probabilistic signals, not guarantees, and consult the market’s rule page for the exact resolution methodology.
Resolution uses the official meteorological observation identified in the market’s rules (typically the designated NWS or airport observing station for San Antonio); consult the market’s rule page to see the precise station and dataset named for settlement.
Each outcome represents a mutually exclusive temperature range for the day’s recorded maximum at the specified station; the market page lists the numeric boundaries for those ranges, and only the range that contains the final official maximum will settle as the winning outcome.
The market follows the time standard specified in its rules (commonly local standard time for the observing station); check the event’s resolution rules to confirm which time zone and 24‑hour window apply.
Most markets defer to the official data provider’s final corrected record; if corrections or instrument issues occur, settlement follows the official corrected value or the dispute/exception process outlined in the market rules.
Traders commonly use local NWS forecasts and discussions, numerical weather prediction models and ensembles (operational models and guidance), surface and upper‑air observations, satellite imagery, and local climatology and analogs to assess the probability of different temperature outcomes.