| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the maximum daily temperature recorded in San Antonio, Texas, on April 2, 2026. It serves as a localized gauge for how climate variability and seasonal patterns might deviate from historical averages.
San Antonio experiences a humid subtropical climate, where early April represents a transitional period between late winter and the onset of summer heat. Historical data for this region in early April typically shows significant volatility, influenced by cold fronts from the north and warm, moisture-rich air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico. Predicting specific daily highs requires an assessment of long-range meteorological trends and regional oscillation patterns.
The price of each outcome reflects the collective market sentiment regarding the likelihood that the temperature will fall within that specific range. These prices adjust as meteorological data and atmospheric models are updated leading up to the target date.
The market utilizes official temperature data reported by the National Weather Service (NWS) for San Antonio.
No, the market tracks the actual air temperature recorded by official monitoring stations, not the heat index or perceived temperature.
Early April is characterized by mild to warm conditions, though it is a transition season prone to sudden temperature swings depending on passing storm fronts.
The measurement refers to the official temperature record for the city of San Antonio, typically measured at the San Antonio International Airport station.
The market resolves based on the official high temperature reading provided by the primary data source, regardless of whether extreme weather contributed to that result.