| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest official air temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 9, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive decision makers tracking short-term temperature extremes.
Phoenix in early March is in the seasonal transition from winter to spring, so typical conditions trend warmer but can still be disrupted by late-season cold fronts or storm systems. Interannual drivers (for example ENSO-related patterns) and short-term synoptic setups control whether a given day skews warmer or cooler than climatology, while local factors like urban heat island and station siting affect the reported value.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which outcome will be realized; always check the market page for the exact outcome definitions, settlement source, rounding rules, and close time rather than inferring technical settlement rules from prices alone.
The market's contract term on KALSHI specifies the authoritative data source, the reporting station, the time standard, and any rounding or averaging conventions used for settlement; consult the KALSHI market page for that exact settlement specification (many weather contracts reference official NWS/NOAA station reports when so designated).
The market close time is set by KALSHI and will be shown on the market page; because the listing currently shows 'TBD', check the market details for the announced trade cut-off prior to the observation window.
Each outcome corresponds to the specific temperature range or discrete value listed in the market's outcome table; only the outcome that contains the officially reported highest temperature after applying any stated rounding or station rules will resolve as the winning outcome.
Key short-term drivers include whether a high-pressure ridge or a cold front is present, the amount of daytime cloud cover, surface winds (direction and strength), recent rainfall or wet soils, and any dust or aerosol events that modify insolation.
Historical climatology provides context on typical early-March conditions and the range of past extremes, but it does not determine a single day's outcome; combine climatological context with current forecasts, short-term model guidance, and the market's settlement rules when forming a view.