| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° to 91° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 85° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the recorded highest temperature in Phoenix (local) will be on March 8, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive businesses, utilities, and traders who want to hedge or express views on short-term temperature outcomes. The market is structured as a set of mutually exclusive temperature outcome buckets.
Phoenix sits in a hot desert climate, and early March is a seasonal transition month with large day-to-day variability driven by shifting synoptic patterns. Week-to-week forecasts can swing substantially as high-amplitude ridges or transient troughs approach the region, and local measurement site characteristics can also change reported values.
Market odds reflect the collective, continuously updated expectations of participants given available forecasts and observations; they move as new model runs, surface data, and satellite imagery arrive and should be read as a real‑time consensus rather than a guarantee.
Settlement will follow the official measurement source specified in the market's terms (check the market page). Many weather contracts use the NWS/ASOS observation for Phoenix Sky Harbor or another designated official station; the market terms list the exact station and instrument standard.
The event is tied to the local Phoenix calendar date; Phoenix observes Mountain Standard Time year‑round. The market will use the highest reported temperature within that local March 8 period as defined in the settlement rules—see the event terms for precise UTC cutoffs and handling instructions.
As new model runs, satellite analyses, and surface observations come in, participants reassess the likelihood of each outcome; sudden model shifts (e.g., a late-arriving trough or cloud band) commonly produce fast price movement in the final 48–72 hours.
Yes—temperatures can differ by several degrees depending on siting and land cover. The market resolves on the specified official station in its rules, so outcomes depend on that station's exposure and nearby urban influences rather than a city‑wide average.
Historical March climatology and recent March highs provide a reference for plausible ranges and volatility, helping traders gauge how extreme a given outcome would be; combine climatology with current-season signals and short‑range forecasts for a fuller picture.