| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome bins will contain the highest observed temperature in Phoenix on March 7, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive businesses and traders who use short-term temperature outcomes for hedging and decision-making.
March is a transitional month in Phoenix with large day-to-day variability: strong spring sunshine can produce rapid warm-ups, while late-season troughs or cool Pacific air intrusions can suppress temperatures. This event is hosted on KALSHI and offers six discrete outcomes covering the range of plausible high temperatures for that date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which outcome will occur and should be treated as a real-time signal rather than a definitive forecast; combine them with official meteorological guidance and model output when evaluating risk.
Settlement will use the official highest air temperature recorded for the specified Phoenix observing station on March 7, 2026, as published by the designated authority; consult the market's contract rules for the precise data source and definition.
The event's settlement rules identify the official station (commonly Phoenix Sky Harbor or another specified NWS station); verify the event page or contract text on KALSHI to confirm the exact station and instrumentation used.
The relevant period is the calendar day as defined in the market rules (typically 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time at the designated station); check whether the contract uses local standard time or UTC in its settlement language.
The listed close time is TBD; settlement will occur after the official daily observation or summary for March 7 is published by the designated data provider—check the event page for updates on closure and settlement timing.
Short-range deterministic and ensemble model guidance (e.g., high-resolution convection-allowing models, global ensembles), NWS forecast discussions for Phoenix, and trends in cloud-cover/wind forecasts are most informative for anticipating the high temperature on that specific date.