| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 35% | 30¢ | 34¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 56% | 51¢ | 56¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 9% | 7¢ | 10¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 6, 2026 will be and links that single-day meteorological observation to market outcomes. It matters because traders and observers use it to synthesize forecasts, recent observations, and climate context into a single, tradable question.
Phoenix has a hot desert climate where early March temperatures can be influenced by either lingering winter systems or early-season warming; daily highs vary with synoptic pattern and local effects. Long-term warming trends are observable over decades, but single-day highs are driven primarily by short-term weather patterns such as ridging, frontal passages, and cloud cover. Markets like this translate those meteorological drivers into a simple outcome that settles against an official reporting source.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which outcome will be realized given current forecasts and information; they update as new meteorological data and model runs arrive. Use prices as a real-time indicator of how the market is interpreting evolving weather information, not as a definitive forecast in isolation.
Settlement will follow the contract's specifications on the market page: typically the official highest air temperature recorded at the designated Phoenix observing station as reported by the designated data provider (for example, the National Weather Service station specified in the contract). Check the market rules for the precise station name, measurement convention (e.g., standard shelter thermometer), and data source.
The outcome is determined after the local observation period for March 6 concludes and the designated reporting agency issues its official daily summary or archived observation. Exact settlement timing depends on the platform's rules and the publication schedule of the data source; consult the market page and the platform's settlement policy for exact timing.
The six outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive temperature categories or ranges listed on this market's outcome list. Only the outcome whose predefined range contains the officially reported highest temperature on March 6, 2026 will resolve as the winning outcome.
As new model runs and observations arrive, traders will revise expectations; significant changes in forecasted synoptic features (e.g., development of a ridge or a frontal passage) can materially shift which outcome the market favors. Market prices typically move to reflect that incoming information in near real time.
If the official data source reports missing, suspect, or corrected observations, the platform will follow the market's published settlement procedures and the contract's data-handling rules. That may include using provisional values, later-corrected official values, or an alternate specified data product; check the market's rulebook and contact support for clarification on specific cases.