| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 38% | 35¢ | 40¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 44% | 42¢ | 45¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 13% | 13¢ | 15¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the highest recorded temperature in Phoenix on March 5, 2026; it matters for traders, weather observers, and anyone hedging temperature-dependent risk. Outcomes provide a short-term forecast signal about that day's peak heat in the Phoenix metro area.
Phoenix is a desert city with strong day-to-day temperature variability in early March; synoptic-scale features like Pacific storms, inland ridges, and frontal passages commonly drive large swings around seasonal averages. Historical records show both unseasonably warm and cool early-March days, so single-day extremes can be driven by transient atmospheric patterns and local factors such as wind and cloud cover.
Market prices represent traders' aggregated views on which temperature range will contain the day’s observed maximum; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal that updates as new forecast and observational information becomes available. Prices do not replace official observations, which determine settlement.
The contract will settle to the official daily maximum temperature reported by the designated observation station specified by the market operator, typically the National Weather Service/NOAA climate station that serves Phoenix (for example, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport). Check the market rules for the exact designated station.
The market’s close time is set by the operator (listed as TBD) and will be announced on the platform; settlement occurs after the end of March 5 local time once the official daily maximum is published by the designated data source and any required verification window has passed.
Short-term deterministic and ensemble model runs, hourly observations, and updated satellite/radar/cloud forecasts are most valuable in the 48–72 hours before the date; shift in model guidance about front timing or cloud cover can materially change expectations for the day’s peak temperature.
Phoenix remains on Mountain Standard Time year-round; the market references local date and will settle based on the official daily maximum for March 5 local time as recorded at the designated Phoenix station.
The market operator (KALSHI) designates the authoritative observational data source and handles settlement according to posted rules; the underlying verification data typically come from official agencies such as the National Weather Service/NOAA that maintain the Phoenix climate station records.