| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 96% | 96¢ | 97¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 1% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six defined temperature outcomes will equal Phoenix’s highest observed air temperature on March 4, 2026. It matters because maximum daily temperature affects energy demand, outdoor activities, and short-term weather risk assessments for the region.
Phoenix in early March is in a transitional season when temperatures can be influenced by late-winter cold fronts or the early development of spring warmth; year-to-year variability is driven by synoptic patterns and larger-scale climate drivers. Local factors such as cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat island effects also shape the daily maximum, while official observations are provided by federal weather stations in the Phoenix metro area.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which temperature range will contain the observed daily high; they are a real-time signal of market sentiment and do not replace official meteorological forecasts or observations. For final outcomes, the exchange settles to the authoritative temperature observation specified in the contract terms.
Settlement will use the authoritative observation specified in the market contract, typically the official NOAA/NWS daily maximum for the Phoenix metro area (commonly the Phoenix Sky Harbor station); check the market contract text to confirm the exact station or dataset.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range listed on the market page; the winning outcome is the range that contains the official observed daily maximum temperature for the local calendar date as determined by the specified station and dataset.
The market close time is set by the exchange and is listed on the market page as TBD; check the market interface for the official last trade time because trading typically ends before the observation period begins or at the time specified by the exchange.
Settlement normally uses the official daily maximum as reported by the designated weather station (derived from hourly observations or instrument-recorded daily max) according to the exchange’s stated data source and measurement protocol.
The exchange follows its published settlement and dispute rules: it may use corrected data from the authoritative source, an alternate specified station or dataset, or follow a defined adjudication process; consult the market’s settlement rules for how such cases are resolved.