| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 99% | 93¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Phoenix on March 3, 2026 will be; it matters because day-to-day temperature extremes influence public health, energy demand, transportation, and water use in the region.
Phoenix has a wide diurnal temperature range and is prone to rapid temperature swings driven by large-scale Pacific patterns, frontal passages, and local effects; early March is a transitional month between winter and spring. This market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes and has seen $54,398 in volume traded to date; check the market page for the exact outcome definitions and the announced close time, which is currently listed as TBD.
Market prices aggregate participant beliefs about which temperature outcome will occur; higher prices indicate stronger market preference for an outcome but should be read alongside official meteorological forecasts and observations. Use the market as a complementary, real-time signal rather than a substitute for official weather services.
Resolution typically relies on an official observing station or dataset specified in the market rules (commonly the National Weather Service/ASOS station for Phoenix such as Phoenix Sky Harbor); consult the market's resolution rules to confirm the exact station and timestamp used.
The market's six outcomes are defined on the event page as mutually exclusive temperature bins or specific values; check the outcome list on the market page to see the exact boundaries and how ties or unavailable data are handled.
Historical climatology for early March shows typical daytime highs in the general mid-60s to mid-70s°F range, but notable variability and occasional warm or cool anomalies occur; historical records and recent years' observations provide a baseline for what constitutes an unusually hot or cool Mar 3.
Yes — synoptic changes such as a fast-moving cold front, abrupt downslope winds, or mesoscale heat bursts can shift the day's maximum by many degrees, especially in a margin season like early March; monitoring short-range model updates and surface observations in the 48 hours before the date is important.
Higher cumulative volume generally corresponds to greater liquidity and faster incorporation of new information into prices; having six outcomes increases granularity but can spread liquidity across bins, so check the current order book and recent trade sizes to assess how easily positions can be entered or exited.