| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° to 102° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed temperature in Phoenix will be on March 29, 2026; it matters for traders, local planners, and anyone tracking short‑term climate variability or heat impacts.
Phoenix experiences strong seasonal swings; late March is a transitional period from milder spring weather toward the hotter months, so outcomes can be sensitive to transient weather systems. Long‑term warming trends and occasional early‑season heat waves have raised baseline temperatures, while day‑to‑day weather depends on synoptic patterns and local effects.
Market prices reflect participants’ collective expectations about the single highest official temperature reported for that date and update as new forecasts, observations, and news arrive; use them as one timely signal among meteorological data sources.
Settlement timing is determined by the platform; the event page on KALSHI or the market rules will list the official close/settlement window—check there for the exact timestamp and any updates.
The event will settle to the official temperature reported by the designated measurement source named in the market rules (typically an official NWS/airport station); consult the event details on the platform to confirm which station and dataset are authoritative.
This market has six mutually exclusive outcome buckets defined on the event page; each bucket corresponds to a specific temperature range or value as listed by the market—refer to the outcome descriptions on KALSHI for the exact mappings.
Focus on high-resolution short‑range guidance and ensemble forecasts within a few days of Mar 29, plus recent surface observations and model consensus; sudden changes in cloud cover, winds, or storm passages can materially shift the likely daily maximum.
Settlement procedures for disputes, ties, or data issues are governed by the platform’s adjudication rules; the event page and KALSHI’s rulebook describe the tie‑breaking and dispute resolution process—review those documents for specifics.